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JOC - Economies to slow: Study Print E-mail

New expectations are for slowing economic growth around the world, according to the latest World Economic Survey prepared by CESifo and the International Chamber of Commerce.

The quarterly report, released Monday, surveyed 1,005 corporate and academic economists in 90 countries.

After two years of robust economic growth, expectations for the next six months were lower than previously anticipated. The Ifo index fell to 105.6 from 111.0 registered in the previous quarter, while prospects for the coming six months dropped to 96.5 from 108.8 previously. The good news: Assessments of the current economic situation continued to improve, registering 115.1 for the third quarter versus 113.2 in the second quarter.

"The present trend was set in motion in the second quarter. While the economy was still seen as favorable, expectations were starting to wane amid downward pressures brought on by steeply rising oil prices," said Gebhard Flaig, executive board member of the Ifo Institute for Economic Research. "The latest results indicate the world economy is approaching a cooling-down phase of the growth cycle."

The sharpest fall-off in expectations was registered in North America, where the world economic climate index dropped to 98.0 from 114.8, although assessments of the current economic environment improved slightly. According to the survey, growth in the U.S. will be at a slow but more sustainable pace and inflation will increase. While prospects for Asia deteriorated somewhat for the second quarter in a row, economists in Europe remained as optimistic as in the past.

According to the survey, "In almost all euro-area countries, the same pattern in business sentiment could be observed: assessments of the present economic situation improved, but economic expectations have been downgraded." The only exception was the United Kingdom, where both the short-term and six-month forecasts call for steady improvement.

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