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[05-04-56] ػç logistics Excellence Training 2013 Print E-mail


ػç logistics Excellence Training 2013

ѹ 2 ¹ 2556 8.30-16.30 . ç Ի ͿԹ

ͧ Toward : The Unified Supply Chain

Сǹͧ Toward AEC : one vision, one identity , one community , one Supply Chain



Imageػç logistics Excellence Training 2013

"㹡 AEC : Ҥ 繨ԧ ͡ Фҷ" .õ 駡ԨҹԪ Print E-mail


Ұ ͧ "㹡 AEC : Ҥ 繨ԧ ͡ Фҷ"

.õ 駡ԨҹԪ

иҹʶҺѹԨ͡þѲһ (TDRI)
㹧ҹЪѭШӻ 駷 18 Ҽ͡
ͧº çԵҹ


Part 1


Part 2



Image͡ûСͺúͧ 㹡 AEC : Ҥ 繨ԧ ͡ Фҷ .õ 駡ԨҹԪ иҹʶҺѹԨ͡þѲһ (TDRI)

A4A Smartbrief 3/4/13 - Column: How will airline mergers affect airfares? Print E-mail


Column: How will airline mergers affect airfares?


It was President Eisenhower who famously spoke of unwarranted influence. At the time he was talking about the military-industrial complex. But if he were around today, we suspect he would have included the aviation business, specifically passenger airlines, especially in light of the spate of recent mergers.


Mergers are not new, of course, but consumer and economic trends have accelerated those in the airline industry in recent years. We measure airlines in our annual Customer Loyalty Engagement Index, and cant have helped but notice that there are fewer National carriers showing up in the survey now than a decade ago. Ten years ago there were 10 airline brands, this year there are only six. American Airlines merged with U.S. Airways, Northwest merged with Delta, United merged with Continental, so fewer airlines and, perhaps, consumers fear, unwarranted influence on the parts of those that remain.


Along with the normal fears of flying, lost luggage, and cancelled flights, with competition significantly reduced, passengers fear that there is a greater likelihood of fare increases. A decade ago when it came to the cost of a ticket the brands shook out pretty much as you might have expected; budget airlines were seen to be low, everyone else was seen to be, well, higher than budget airlines, but certainly not meeting passenger expectations for Ideal Airline brand value. Those expectations havent abated. If anything, theyve increased along with airline fares and fees. So when it comes to fares being fair, heres how consumers currently rank airlines:

1. U.S. Airways (this assessment was collected before the merger with American was announced and is extraordinarily interesting, we think,     given its consumer ranking)
2. Southwest
3. JetBlue
4. Delta
5. United
6. American

Anyway, theres been a lot of attention paid to the case the Supreme Court declined to weigh on Monday having to do with a regulation that requires airlines to advertise the full cost of tickets. Arent they doing that, we hear you ask? Well, according to the Department of Transportation, theyre supposed to advertise the entire price to be paid by the customer. Meaning theyre not supposed to leave out taxes and government fees and any extra fees. So, basically, the full cost of the ticket to you.


Spirit airlines (joined with Allegiant and Southwest airlines) challenged the regulation, which had been upheld in the U.S. Court of Appeals last July. The airlines perhaps best known for budget flights say that the regulation infringes on their rights of free speech. The government POV is this is just part of the Transportation Departments longstanding authority to prevent consumer confusion in airfare advertising. Not being lawyers we cant comment, but being frequent flyers we believe that the majority of airline passengers would welcome all the facts. Although you know what they say about lawyers? To some lawyers all facts are created equal.


Too cynical? Oscar Wilde noted that a cynic is a man who knows the price of everything and the value of nothing.  But airlines should be careful because today, you know that they call a man (or woman) who knows the value of everything? A consumer.

JOC 3/4/13 - Report: Ship Operators' Liquidity 'Critical' for Survival Print E-mail


Report: Ship Operators' Liquidity 'Critical' for Survival


Ship operators worldwide face significant refinancing and default risks, driven by tight bank funding, industry overcapacity, depressed trading conditions, high operating costs and declining ship charter rates, according to a report by Standard & Poors Ratings Services, Global Ship Operators Scramble for Liquidity to Stay Afloat.


The report found that ship operators are finding it increasingly difficult to raise capital for new ships and to refinance existing loans, while banks, faced with their own financial difficulties and a riskier shipping market, are imposing tougher conditions for lending and charging higher premiums.


We expect asset values and the performance and credit quality of shipping companies to remain weak in the coming quarters, which will further exacerbate banks reluctance to lend, said Izabela Listowska, Standard & Poors credit analyst, in a written statement. As a result, we think shipping company defaults and financial restructurings are likely over the next few quarters.


A companys ability to maintain adequate liquidity will be critical to withstanding the difficult industry challenges, Listowska added.

Hellenic Shpg 4/4/13 - Near sourcing -- all talk but little action Print E-mail


Near sourcing -- all talk but little action


During the past few years much has been reported about the transfer of manufacturing from Asia to countries located closer to western markets, but much of it appears to be hype over substance.Whilst many importers claim that near sourcing is increasing, the evidence seen by Drewry suggests that it is unlikely to affect deep-sea container cargo volumes significantly in the near future.

The result is surprising as all the anecdotal evidence points to a significant increase in near sourcing. Many shippers to whom Drewry have spoken say that the trend is escalating for reasons that are easy to understand. Retailers need to offer more made to measure goods that can be delivered to market a lot faster than from Asia. For example, a car or computer with a limited range of options doesnt sell as well as models that can be sourced from closer to home with a wider range of cheap extras.

Whilst the problem can be overcome by increasing stock levels locally, it doesnt deal with the faster trend cycles now confronting retailers.

Stocking up on green shoes when the current fashion is for red boots is a sure way to lose money, as prices then have to be heavily discounted to keep the goods moving. Moreover, keeping more stocks in developed markets, where labour and rents are more expensive, is a costly business.

Ocean carriers have not helped matters by slowing vessels on headhaul routes from Asia to save fuel. This highlights another problem as the cost of fuel rises to allow for green taxes, so will the expense of off shoring. Moreover, minimising carbon footprints is becoming increasingly desirable.

The way that the proportion of North Europes and the US imports from Asia have flat-lined over the past couple of years also suggests that importers have been having second thoughts over the benefits off shoring (see charts below). It explains why the usual multipliers of GDP growth used by analysts to forecast trade growth have been falling.

On the other hand, flat-lining of off shoring does not necessarily mean the return of manufacturing to Europe and North America. It could just mean that there are fewer remaining factories there to close down.

For example, although Mexico is reported to be one of the main beneficiaries of retailers needing to service US customers more quickly, the countrys growth in exports of containerisable cargo to the US has only been marginally faster than that of China and the rest of Asia over the last few years.

However, the data needs to be treated with care, as it doesnt take into account inflation or the changing value of currencies. China, in particular, has suffered from high inflation, but the same applies to Mexico, only in more variable cycles.

So, although the fact that Asias maritime traffic to the US increased by only 1.5% last year, up to 12 million teu, following on from 1.4% in 2011, it is dangerous to assume that the value of Asias exports to the US must be inflated much more than that of Mexicos, bearing in mind that Chinas export values still amount to more than those of the rest of Asia.

It could also be that some raw materials and component parts are imported by Mexico from Asia before being exported to the US.

Quantifying Mexicos trade with the US in teu terms is complicated by the fact that most of it moves overland. Using the average value per teu of Asias exports to the US as a conversion factor, we estimate that Mexicos containerisable export traffic to the US reached 3.5 million teu in 2012, or 29% of the total eastbound transpacific market.

In conclusion, although trade from Mexico to the US is important, ocean carriers appear to have little to fear from near sourcing in the short term. However, as one major shipper recently confided to Drewry: Near sourcing is going to increase, we just dont know yet by how much, and from where.

There are certainly goods that are already seeing production transferred from Asia to closer US production centres such as Mexico, such as footwear (see chart below). And, of course, there are some products, such as computers, that are now even being manufactured in the US itself.

Near sourcing may yet take off, therefore. According to Kansas City Southern, Mexicos largest Railway, expectations are running high, with four new automotive plans scheduled to come on stream between 2014 and 2015, increasing annual production by close to one million vehicles. There is also a corresponding surge in the relocation and growth among tier 1 & 2 automotive suppliers moving into the market to support this new production.

Domestic appliance manufacturers are moving the same way too.

Tyre exports from Mexico to the US market has yet to take off, although, as mentioned previously, it ignores the different impact of currency and inflation rates in Mexico and Asia.

Much is also reported about near sourcing in Europe, although, here again, the evidence so far suggests more hype than substance. Turkey, like Mexico for the US market, is claimed to be one of the main beneficiaries, yet, as shown in the chart below, its trade to the UK, Europes largest importer, is tracking behind the trend line from Asia.

Our View
Near Sourcing will increase, but off a very low base, so its impact on deep-sea ocean carriers is unlikely to be significant in the short-term.
These are desperate times for consumers, so cheap prices from Asia are more important than before.

Predicting the situation after that is dangerous due to the uncertain growth rate of internet shopping, which will soon demand same-day delivery.
This is a more immediate revolution confronting retailers, with up to 10% of all retailing in Europe likely to be conducted over the internet by 2016, according to Jones Lang LaSalle.

Another more immediate trend will be the transfer of production away from China to cheaper Asian countries.


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